It’s that time of year again. No, not the hosepipe ban, the shortlist for the Mercury Music Prize has been announced! After last year’s debacle, it looks like the judges have played it relatively safe this year with a list of names instantly recognisable, and only a couple that would have you scratching your head and heading for Myspace to have a listen, before smugly pretending, “Oh yeah, I’ve heard of them.”

 

So, let’s have a look at the young pretenders hoping to follow in the footsteps of such musical legends as Elbow, Arctic Monkeys, and... er... Speech Debelle. Also included are the current best betting odds, for those who like to have a monkey on the nags. I prefer to have a pony on the slags, but each to their own.

 

Laura Marling – I Speak Because I Can

 

Something of a Mercury darling after being nominated in 2008 for Alas I Cannot Swim, Marling is back and the critics have once again lavished praise on her. Bloody right too. As good as her debut was, I would venture to say that I Speak Because I Can is just as good, and possibly even better, which would make her a strong outside bet. If she won, no one would complain; she’s just so damn likeable.

 

Best odds – 10/1 with SkyBet. Well worth a tenner, but don’t put your house/flat/cardboard box on it.

 

The xx – The xx

 

Instantly the bookies favourites, and mine as well. The xx captured the minds and hearts of seemingly everyone last year with their brooding, less-is-more, swoonsome gushery. They are the favourites simply because they are just under the mainstream, but just above being a cult band, and they aren’t too eclectic to alienate themselves. They are also the favourites because their album is, frankly, stunning.

 

Best odds – 9/4 with Coral. I know where my money is going.

 

Paul Weller – Wake Up The Nation

 

Just writing that brings a massive smile to my face. Weller’s latest is the best he’s done for years, and it’s heartwarming to know that it’s been recognised and nominated. However, the judges might think that Weller doesn’t really need to win the Mercury Prize, seeing as he’s a living legend and all that. But, having recently watched The Wrestler again for the hundredth time, everyone loves a comeback story, and Weller would be very deserving of this. Only without being powerbombed through a table.

 

Best odds – 20/1 with BetFred. Stick a couple of quid on him, you’ve got nothing to lose. Other than a couple of quid.

 

Mumford & Sons – Sigh No More

 

Is it only me who really dislikes this lot? It is? Grr. Honestly, whenever they come on the radio I have to switch to LBC just to avoid hearing them, but it heightens the risk of listening to Vanessa Feltz. But they certainly have their followers, and are folky enough to win. The only question is, will they play as Marling’s backing band when she performs at the ceremony?

 

Best odds – 9/2 with SkyBet. Worth a punt, if you like that sort of thing.

 

Wild Beasts – Two Dancers

 

Third favourites you say? It’s hardly surprising, as everyone creamed themselves thrice over their album, and they are just under-the-radar enough to be taken seriously. Here’s hoping they play “Hooting & Howling” at the awards bash.

 

Best odds – 6/1 with Paddy Power. I wouldn’t be surprised if these odds shorten closer to the big day, so if you fancy them get on them now. You might just be pleasantly surprised.

 

Dizzee Rascal – Tongue n’ Cheek

 

Marling is a Mercury mainstay, Dizzee must be the Grand Elder Clan Lord of the awards. Winner in 2003, nominated again in 2007 and again this year, Mr Rascal is clearly the most mainstream of all the artists on the list. That may well count against him, but there’s no denying the level of success he has achieved already. There’s also the fact that only quadriplegics haven’t danced to “Holiday” like a horny teenager and thought that this is how life should be. Hard to call, but I would count him out simply because he’s won it already, and no one has won the Mercury twice... yet.

 

Best odds – 16/1 with Ladbrokes. Worth putting a couple of quid on at that price, if you think about it. After last year, the judges may feel the award needs legitimising, and Dizzee would definitely achieve that.

 

I Am Kloot – Sky At Night

 

The influence of Guy Garvey must be rubbing off on the Kloots, as the former winner produced this album, their fifth. ‘Tis an album of beauty and wonderment as well as low moments of sheer melancholy, and deserves its place here. There’s a chance that Garvey may well be nudging a few of the judges in the ribs over this lot, and for that you can’t discount them.

 

Best odds – 16/1 with Ladbrokes. Strong outsiders, but I think they would need a late surge to be considered front runners and worth splurging on.

 

Kit Downes Trio – Golden

 

Howard Moon must be as giddy as his ‘forest casual’ utility outfit would allow him to be, as this jazz trio are the unknown element in this highly radioactive list. As usual, the token jazz nominees are given a sideways glance but no more. Again, after last year, you wouldn’t bet on the judges making another left-field choice, but they are always worth watching on TV as they usually surprise you into thinking jazz is good. It isn’t.

 

Best odds – 20/1 with Bet365. The equivalent of betting on a blind, one legged horse with severe liver and bowel problems to win the Grand National.

 

Foals – Total Life Forever

 

So they weren’t nominated for Antidotes, but they were for this, what ultimately is a sell-out album. Hmm. I think they have lost their edge with this album, but who am I to say what is what anymore? They’re a name on everyone’s lips, and if they can maintain their wave of momentum until the bash, they are worth considering. But I wouldn’t bet on them.

 

Best odds – 12/1 with BetFred.  Better options lie elsewhere.

 

Corinne Bailey Rae – The Sea

 

Many have praised this album, particularly following the well-documented news of Rae’s heartache over the past few years, and having seen her live at Hard Rock Calling (which wasn’t very hard rock at all) there’s no denying the talent. While The Sea is a deeper, more poignant album, its lack of a killer single may well hold it back. If anything, it’s probably not mainstream enough to be at the head of the pack, and I’d put her behind Marling for the female vote.

 

Best odds – 14/1 with BetFred.  Just not strong enough.

 

Biffy Clyro – Only Revolutions

 

Many old school Biffy fans don’t like the new direction their music has taken, and prefer the older records, a bit like what’s happened to Kings Of Leon. I for one really quite like the new Biff stuff, especially “Bubbles” despite the horrid lyrics in the chorus. But they have garnered a lot of attention, with The Observer labelling the album as “their finest hour.” Legitimate newspaper there, The Observer.

 

Best odds – 20/1 with Bet365. At that price, well worth sticking a fiver on, as the odds are outrageously high for a band that is genuinely a contender.

 

Villagers– Becoming A Jackal

 

Nope, no idea either, but on their Myspace page they describe themselves as ‘alt-rock hobbits,’ so I like them already. I also think they have the best album cover, and if there was an award for that I would back them to death. Praised by NME and influenced by Rufus Wainwright, on first listen they are imminently likeable. Any other year I’d think they had a strong outside chance, but I think the judges would favour Marling and the Mumfords over these. They should do well out of the attention they will receive for being nominated, and for that they will feel like they have won something already, and that’s really what the Mercury’s are all about.

 

Best odds – 14/1 with William Hill. I think the odds are a bit too short to have a punt on, but they could well be fancied as outsiders. I would be surprised.

 

In conclusion:

 

Put loads of money on The xx

Put a moderate amount on Marling, Mumfords, Wild Beasts

Put small money on Weller, Biffy, I Am Kloot

 

Remember, betting is ultimately a mug's game. But only if you lose.

Posted In Features, Jul 20 2010. Words - Paul